An absence of jeopardy at either end of the Premier League table has left the race for Europe as wide open as it has ever been
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The title race is all but over and the Championship's three promoted teams are heading back whence they came with a whimper, but the final stretch of the 2024-25 Premier League season could still be among the most thrilling we've seen.
With England almost certain to bag a fifth Champions League spot from UEFA owing to the new coefficient rules, the fight for a place at Europe's top table could hardly be more heated. Manchester City, the reigning kings of the country, currently occupy fifth place and that final Champions League position, yet only four points separate them and feel-good story Bournemouth in 10th, while Nottingham Forest's fairy tale has them six points ahead of Pep Guardiola's side in third.
It feels increasingly likely that the Champions League will see at least one new English participant for 2025-26, but who's going to claim it? GOAL has crunched the numbers and broken down some predictions for the final nine gameweeks to find out which teams will be in Europe next term:
Follow GOAL on WhatsApp! 🟢📱Getty Images SportFulham
For people hoping any of the current bottom-half teams break into the top 10 before the end of the season, we've got some bad news to break to you – our data says it's just not going to happen, but we'll circle back to a couple of those infamous stories later.
Ordinarily, 56 points is a total that should get you a little closer to the European places, though in this simulation, it would only land Fulham 10th spot. If this is the case, it may take the shine off what has been an incredible job by Marco Silva at Craven Cottage, who has repaired his own reputation and consolidated the Whites' status as a top-flight club again.
Unfortunately for them, some tricky fixtures are peering over the horizon. They will take on Arsenal and Liverpool immediately upon returning to Premier League action, with a west London derby with Chelsea also coming up. Manchester City head to SW6 on the last day of the season, while only three of their remaining games come against bottom-half sides, and one of them is a trip to bitter neighbours Brentford. Sorry, Fulham fans, but the maths isn't maths-ing this year.
AdvertisementGetty Images SportBournemouth
Bournemouth booking a first-ever European adventure would cap off a remarkable season before their squad inevitably gets pillaged by richer and more glamorous teams. Alas, it appears the Cherries' passports will be staying in the drawer.
This may just be a case of recency bias skewing predictions – Bournemouth have won only one of their last six league games – or it could be a legitimate concern over Andoni Iraola's full-throttle style. You could make a case either way.
Clashes with Ipswich Town and West Ham ought to turn into two wins fresh from the international break and FA Cup sixth-round weekend, though this creeping inconsistency could make those tougher affairs than usual too. A run of four successive matches against Manchester United, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Manchester City heading into the final day of the season may also throw a spanner in the works.
Nevertheless, this would still mark tremendous progress for a team who looked destined to be relegated at the start of last season. How they react and rebuild this summer when the likes of Dean Huijsen, Milos Kerkez and even manager Iraola receive significant offers will determine how close they can go again in future.
Getty Images SportAston Villa
Dealing with the added intensity of a full Champions League schedule has wrecked havoc with Aston Villa's Premier League campaign. They have had to deal with various injuries, the sale of star striker Jhon Duran and the need to quickly reinvent themselves with Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio to keep up with the pack.
Unai Emery's side are the only top-half team currently boasting a negative goal difference, which tends to be a fair differential when splitting hairs. Villa are still going strong in the Champions League and have an exciting quarter-final with Paris Saint-Germain to look forward to, while Crystal Palace await them in the FA Cup semi-finals, so it's only natural their domestic form may suffer a little more.
As is the case with Fulham, Villa will take on six top-half teams before the season is out, and if they're looking leggy from their European and cup campaigns, then expect results to follow a similar trend. Eighth could be enough to secure a spot in the Conference League, however, allowing Villa to right the wrongs of 2023-24 and go all the way in the third-tier competition. But after tasting the highs of the Champions League, it'd be a bitter pill to swallow.
Getty Images SportBrighton & Hove Albion
After a harrowing 7-0 defeat at the hands of Nottingham Forest on February 1, Brighton's divisive 32-year-old head coach Fabian Hurzeler is said to have literally set his tactical plans on fire in front of his players. Which, you know, in an age where managers usually stick rigidly to a philosophy for better or worse, is quite an admirable feat.
Since that thrashing, Brighton have taken 13 points from a possible 15 to propel themselves back into European contention, and six of their remaining fixtures come against bottom-half teams. The Seagulls' lips will be smacking at the thought of another continental excursion after last year's run to the last-16 of the Europa League, and a seventh-place finish should get them back into that same competition.